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Beat the Bookies: Week 8
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 24/09/2008
MACCLESFIELD'S win at Port Vale last week ensured a profitable weekend for Beat the Bookies, even if the other two recommendations did lose.
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Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 8 |
Grimsby v Barnet. This weekend Town are in the bizarre position of being third favourites in League Two to win their game, despite the fact that we have gone half a year without winning. The reason why is of course that we are playing Barnet, who have almost as bad a record as the Mariners in recent weeks. Although anything other than a win is unthinkable, it's hard to recommend anyone with Town's record to achieve it, especially when the odds are just Evens.
Shrewsbury v Bradford. Bradford suffered a shock defeat at home to Bournemouth on Saturday, but they could easily have got something from the game, and are tastily priced to bounce back at the New Meadow. The Shrews are doing well but 5/2 for a Bantam's away win is too good to turn down.
Dag & Red v Rotherham. Dagenham have got a good home record, but Rotherham have got a decent record both home and away this season. The Daggers are obviously the more likely side to win, but Rotherham have managed to win harder games than this season and are very backable at 21/10.
Accrington v Rochdale. Accrington rarely score and usually lose, a good combination for selling in a Mini Performance Spread Bet, especially when at home. Rochdale have dipped from a bright start to the season, but managed a late win this week and should be good for at least a draw.
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington (21, www.igsport.com)
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1 (16/1, bet365)
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Dag & Red to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
| 28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dag & Red | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
| 15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£14.00 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
| 04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
| 28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
| 19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
| 15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
| 06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
| Total | +£22.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£70.00 | ||
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