Number crunching! |
Beat the Bookies: Week 13
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 31/10/2008
THE midweek bets this week were not a success, so it's time to turn our attention once more to the world of League Two this weekend.
Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 13 |
Grimsby v Darlington. It's frankly hard to see much beyond an away win at the moment, and the bookies unsurprisingly have made Darlo strong favourites to win at Blundell Park. 5/4 for any away win is probably not the best value around this weekend, despite Darlington's recent form. However only the very brave would back Grimsby at 12/5, especially if they had been to Dagenham unless they believe that the signing of JPK with have a cataclysmic effect.
Bradford v Barnet. Bradford are inevitably strong favourites, but Barnet have improved markedly in recent games and have shown they are more than capable of picking up wins away from Underhill (e.g. 4-3 at Rotherham with 10 men for most of the game). The away win can be picked up for 5/1.
Dagenham v Accrington. Town were bad the other night, but a lot of credit must also go to Dagenham, who looked stronger and fitter than Town and a very well organised side with several excellent forwards. Accrington are no mugs but even so 5/6 for a home win which has a sense of inevitability about it could be value.
Exeter v Chester. Chester are a yo-yo side: brilliant one day, terrible the next. They won their last game 3-0; Exeter lost theirs 6-1. Surely 4/1 for an away win has to be worth it! Alternatively buy Chester in the spreads.
Notts Co v Bury. Neither team is in very good form and County do tend to draw a lot of games, especially at home. However Bury's slump has been rather worrying for the Shakers and they don't look very likely to come away with much from Meadow Lane. County are one of the longest priced home sides in League Two and are worth backing at 13/8
Shrewsbury v Luton. Shrewsbury may have looked like Champions Elect a few weeks ago, but they have only won 1 game in 6. Luton have picked up recently and had a good win in midweek over Bury. The Hatters could cause an upset and are well worth considering at 4/1.
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- Notts County v Bury - buy Notts County Mini Performance (26) at www.igsport.com
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
27/10 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
27/10 | Port Vale to beat Aldershot | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
22/10 | Rotherham to beat Macclesfield | 8/5 | +£16.00 |
22/10 | Luton to beat Bury | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
14/10 | Brentford to beat Aldershot | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
14/10 | Port Vale to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
09/10 | Grimsby to beat Wycombe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
09/10 | Barnet to beat Dagenham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
06/10 | Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
06/10 | Dagenham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | +£50.00 |
30/09 | Shrewsbury beat Darlington | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
30/09 | Brentford to beat Macclesfield | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
24/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
24/09 | Rotherham to beat Dag & Red | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
04/09 | Dag & Red to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dag & Red | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
Total | +£21.60 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
22/10 | Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance | 19 | 10 | S | +£9.00 |
14/10 | Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance | 14 | 65 | S | -£51.00 |
09/10 | Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 19 | 20 | S | -£1.00 |
24/09 | Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 21 | 10 | S | +£11.00 |
17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
Total | -£10.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
27/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
14/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
09/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
24/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
Total | -£140.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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