Beat the Bookies: Week 24

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 21/01/2009

GRIMSBY'S unexpected win over Wycombe meant a spread bet win for Beat the Bookies, although unfortunately any winnings were offset by the two fixed odds recommendations in Luton and Lincoln both failing to win, the latter only narrowly.

The League Two programme contains some very close contests this weekend, with outcomes hard to predict, so we'll therefore be also featuring the FA Cup in today's article which has several all-Premiership matches to ruminate over.

Grimsby v Rotherham After last week's success Town have another tough challenge when they take on the Millers at Blundell Park. The bookies have responded by cutting Town's odds to 13/8, which is a lot shorter than they've been against less successful clubs than Rotherham recently in Blundell Park games. One large thing also in Town's favour however is the fact that Rotherham are in the middle of the JPT Northern final against Scunthorpe and the players and manager will inevitably find it difficult to not dwell on the return leg, especially with little to play for in the league. So overall the bookies' are probably right to shorten the odds on Town but you will have to decide if it represents good value Selection: Grimsby

Bournemouth v Wycombe. Wycombe were poor by their standards last week and will be looking for a big improvement against Bournemouth, whose form has really slumped in recent weeks. However the Cherries have this week appointed a new manager and Wycombe invariably seem to dip in form at this time of year, plus they have a few injuries. Selection: Bournemouth

The important thing with the Premiership clubs and the FA Cup is to look at when the clubs concerned are next playing. There is a full set of fixtures next week on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the FA Cup games on Saturday and Sunday. This means the clubs with most to play for, i.e. those at the very top and the very bottom, have less to play for in the cup and are most likely to rest players.

Chelsea v Ipswich. Chelsea have spluttered in recent weeks and only managed to draw at home in the previous round against Southend. For Championship side Ipswich this is their biggest game on the season and they are certain to play their strongest side. Unlikely as it may seem Ipswich are 16/1 to win at Stamford Bridge. A more cautious bet but one which is very good value is the Asian Handicap which gives a 2 goal start to Chelsea. Ipswich are 4/5 on the handicap which means Chelsea need to win by 3 goals for you to lose any money. Selection: Ipswich (Asian Handicap)

Man Utd v Tottenham. This is a more difficult game to predict as both sides need to concentrate on the Premiership for different reasons. That said of the two it's a much bigger game for Spurs, who are likely to pull themselves away from the bottom whatever happens in next game or so. Man Utd are almost certain to rest key players, and 8/1 for a Spurs win looks great value. Remember Harry Rednapp came to Old Trafford last year and won with his Pompey side who went on to lift the trophy. Selection: Tottenham

Cardiff v Arsenal. Cardiff are always strong at home and Arsenal always play weakened sides in the FA Cup. 5/1 for a home win has got to be worth a flutter on last year's semi-finalists. Selection: Cardiff

Liverpool v Everton. Merseyside derbies don't mean as much as they used to and neither does the FA Cup. Liverpool will rest players, Everton won't and the odds will therefore shift to the blue half of Merseyside. Everton can be backed at 9/2. Selection: Everton

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) Asian Handicap . (4/5 Bet365),
• 2. Portsmouth to beat Man Utd. (8/1 Bet365),

Recommended Spread Bet

• Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance (21) at www.igsport.com

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 22/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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