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Beat the Bookies: Week 27
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 13/02/2009
ONLY one of last week's tips actually took place and that saw Bury almost come back from a two goal deficit to beat Dagenham, but sadly it wasn't to be.
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Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 27 |
Grimsby v Bury. Town have a few injury and suspension problems on Saturday and could be especially weak on the right side. Since Akpro got injured we are not the same, and we were lucky frankly to come away from Barnet with a point on Tuesday. Bury are doing very well at the moment and are on a great run. Painful though it is to contemplate 11/8 for an away win is a decent price. Selection: Bury
Dag & Red v Luton. Neither side has very good form at the moment and they are both drawing a lot of games. Luton need a win, and they just might manage it with probably more away fans in the ground than Daggers' supporters. Luton can be backed at 7/2. Selection: Luton
Bradford v Wycombe. Town have played both these sides recently and of the two Bradford were much the better. Bradford have had a great 2009; Wycombe a poor one. City have drawn too many games at home, but their confidence will be high now and they should win this one. A home win can be backed at 11/8. Selection: Bradford
Brentford v Port Vale. This of course is very likely to be a home win, but Port Vale can approach the game with having nothing to lose. The bookies can overprice a home win in a game where all the money will be for the home side, and Vale have scored 6 goals in the last three games. Vale, priced 11/2 look underpriced. Selection: Port Vale
Notts County v Barnet. Barnet's form on Tuesday night belied their lowly league position. County have lost their last two and Barnet's new signings seem to have strengthened their side on Tuesday. If they get rid of their Israeli 'keeper the Bees could cause an upset and are definitely worth a punt at 7/2. Selection: Barnet
Exeter v Aldershot. Aldershot's season has imploded since Xmas and they face bitter rivals Exeter City at St James Park. Exeter's form has been tremendous recently, and they won 4-0 on Tuesday night. At 10/11 the Grecians look a bargain! Selection: Exeter
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance (27) at www.igsport.com
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 25/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02 | Dagenham to beat Bury | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to beat Bradford | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Macclesfield to beat Rotherham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) | 4/5 | £0.00 |
| 21/01 | Tottenham to beat Man Utd | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Lincoln to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Luton to beat Darlington | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/01 | Exeter to beat Notts County | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Accrington to beat Rochdale | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Bournemouth to beat Darlington | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Luton to beat Chesterfield | 14/5 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Port Vale to beat Rotherham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Bournemouth to beat Brentford | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Grimsby to beat Aldershot | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Lincoln to beat Notts County | 7/4 | +£17.50 |
| 11/12 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 11/12 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bournemouth to beat Chester | Evens | +£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 10/11 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Aldershot beat Millwall | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Alferton beat Scunthorpe | 17/2 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Notts Co to beat Dagenham | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Gillingham to beat Bury | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 9/2 | +£45.00 |
| 11/11 | Gillingham to beat Rotherham | 5/4 | +£12.50 |
| 06/11 | Northampton to beat Leeds | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to beat Morecambe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Bradford to beat MK Dons | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 31/10 | Dagenham to beat Accrington | 5/6 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Luton to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Port Vale to beat Aldershot | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Rotherham to beat Macclesfield | 8/5 | +£16.00 |
| 22/10 | Luton to beat Bury | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 14/10 | Brentford to beat Aldershot | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Port Vale to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to beat Wycombe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Barnet to beat Dagenham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Dagenham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | +£50.00 |
| 30/09 | Shrewsbury beat Darlington | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Brentford to beat Macclesfield | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 24/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Rotherham to beat Dag & Red | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Dag & Red to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
| 28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dag & Red | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
| 15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£55.07 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01 | Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance | 32 | 45 | S | -£13.00 |
| 21/01 | Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | +£34.00 |
| 15/01 | Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 14 | 35 | S | +£21.00 |
| 04/12 | Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance | 21 | 10 | B | -£6.00 |
| 04/12 | Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | -£34.00 |
| 19/11 | Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance | 25 | 45 | S | +£20.00 |
| 31/10 | Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance | 26 | 0 | S | -£26.00 |
| 22/10 | Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance | 19 | 10 | S | +£9.00 |
| 14/10 | Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance | 14 | 65 | S | -£51.00 |
| 09/10 | Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 19 | 20 | S | -£1.00 |
| 24/09 | Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 21 | 10 | S | +£11.00 |
| 17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
| 04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
| 28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
| 19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
| 15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
| 06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
| Total | -£14.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£270.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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Related Stories
- Beat the Bookies: Week 26
- 2008-2009 Beat the Bookies
- 2008-2009 League Two Remaining Fixtures
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