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Beat the Bookies: Week 35
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 09/04/2009
LAST week both the spread bets and the fixed odds came up with a profit. This week there looks a lot of tight games, so expect a lot of draws in League Two this weekend.
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Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 35 |
Grimsby v Accrington Stanley. Accrington have a good record against us and themselves are on a good run, or were until Paul Mullin left for Bradford. Town though are on a bit of a roll at the moment though and with a big crowd behind them should hopefully pick up another three points. Grimsby can be backed at Evens. Selection: Grimsby
Rochdale v Port Vale.Dale recent form is poor, their only consolation is Port Vale's is even worse. However the pressure in this game will all be on Dale as they need to win to keep in touch with automatic promotion. Port Vale are not very likely to win but at 9/2 are definitely worth considering. Selection: Port Vale
Rotherham v Notts County. A similar game to the Rochdale one, on paper it's a home win but the bookies often overegg the odds at a busy time of the year. County can be backed at 17/4. Selection: Notts County
Lincoln v Luton. There's two way of looking at this game. Either Luton will go on from their cup win on Sunday, or they will have spent all week celebrating and be spent. The former seems a more likely scenario and they will want to reward their fans and overturn what they see as an unjust ban. At 9/4 Luton look a decent price. Selection: Luton
Morecambe v Bradford. Bradford have gone to pieces in recent weeks and Morecambe have dipped after a decent run. Nevertheless the home side have been one of the best value teams in League Two all season as the bookies consistently seem to overprice the Shrimpers. Morecambe this week can be backed at 13/8. Selection: Morecambe
Chesterfield v Darlington. Both sides are inconsistent but there seems to be no reason why Darlo should be as long as 3/1. Selection: Darlington
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
- 1. Darlington to beat Chesterfield. (7/2, Sky Bet)
- 2. Luton to beat Lincoln. (9/4, Bet365)
Recommended Spread Bet
- Rochdale v Port Vale: Sell Rochdale Mini Performance, 34, extrabet.com
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 16/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 13/8 | +£16.25 |
| 31/03 | Bradford to beat Chester | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 16/5 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Chester to beat Bury | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Luton to beat Macclesfield | 16/5 | +£8.00 |
| 12/03 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 16/5 | +£32.00 |
| 12/03 | Luton to beat Aldershot | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 13/5 | +£26.00 |
| 05/03 | Barnet to beat Chester | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 26/02 | Bournemouth to beat Gillingham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Barnet to beat Chesterfield | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Barnet to beat Bradford | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 20/02 | Morecambe to beat Aldershot | 11/4 | +£27.50 |
| 13/02 | Barnet to beat Notts County | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Exeter to beat Aldershot | 10/11 | +£9.09 |
| 05/02 | Dagenham to beat Bury | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to beat Bradford | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Macclesfield to beat Rotherham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) | 4/5 | £0.00 |
| 21/01 | Tottenham to beat Man Utd | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Lincoln to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Luton to beat Darlington | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/01 | Exeter to beat Notts County | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Accrington to beat Rochdale | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Bournemouth to beat Darlington | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Luton to beat Chesterfield | 14/5 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Port Vale to beat Rotherham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Bournemouth to beat Brentford | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Grimsby to beat Aldershot | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Lincoln to beat Notts County | 7/4 | +£17.50 |
| 11/12 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 11/12 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bournemouth to beat Chester | Evens | +£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 10/11 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Aldershot beat Millwall | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Alferton beat Scunthorpe | 17/2 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Notts Co to beat Dagenham | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Gillingham to beat Bury | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 9/2 | +£45.00 |
| 11/11 | Gillingham to beat Rotherham | 5/4 | +£12.50 |
| 06/11 | Northampton to beat Leeds | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to beat Morecambe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Bradford to beat MK Dons | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 31/10 | Dagenham to beat Accrington | 5/6 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Luton to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Port Vale to beat Aldershot | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Rotherham to beat Macclesfield | 8/5 | +£16.00 |
| 22/10 | Luton to beat Bury | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 14/10 | Brentford to beat Aldershot | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Port Vale to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to beat Wycombe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Barnet to beat Dagenham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Dagenham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | +£50.00 |
| 30/09 | Shrewsbury beat Darlington | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Brentford to beat Macclesfield | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 24/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Rotherham to beat Dagenham | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Dag & Red to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
| 28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dag & Red | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
| 15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | +£16.77 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | Exeter v Dagenham: Sell Dagenham Mini Performance | 20 | 10 | S | +£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Rochdale v Exeter - sell Rochdale Mini Performance | 30 | 30 | S | +£0.00 |
| 20/03 | Shrewsbury v Morecambe - sell Shrewsbury Mini Performance | 31 | 10 | S | +£21.00 |
| 26/02 | Rochdale v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 16 | 0 | S | -£16.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance | 27 | 45 | B | +£18.00 |
| 30/01 | Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance | 32 | 45 | S | -£13.00 |
| 21/01 | Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | +£34.00 |
| 15/01 | Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 14 | 35 | S | +£21.00 |
| 04/12 | Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance | 21 | 10 | B | -£6.00 |
| 04/12 | Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | -£34.00 |
| 19/11 | Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance | 25 | 45 | S | +£20.00 |
| 31/10 | Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance | 26 | 0 | S | -£26.00 |
| 22/10 | Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance | 19 | 10 | S | +£9.00 |
| 14/10 | Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance | 14 | 65 | S | -£51.00 |
| 09/10 | Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 19 | 20 | S | -£1.00 |
| 24/09 | Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 21 | 10 | S | +£11.00 |
| 17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
| 04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
| 28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
| 19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
| 15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
| 06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
| Total | +£19.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 12/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£350.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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