Beat the Bookies Season Preview

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 01/08/2009

WITH the season fast approaching it's time to look at the markets for exiting League Two at both ends. Beat the Bookies has managed to make a profit in all of its three years, so here's hoping the start of a fourth series of successful tips.

Inevitably the pre-season favourites to win League Two since Sven arrived are Notts County. County are 4/1 favourites to lift the title. The squad that they currently have does not seem to justify this price though. There are less then 20 players on the books at Notts County (most of them the same players who had a poor season last year), and seven coaches including Sven and his hangers-on. My advice would be to look elsewhere for value, or even consider laying the Magpies. Like the Grand National, there's plenty of good prices - it's just a matter of finding a good horse!

Next in the betting are Rotherham and Shrewsbury who both came close last year, but have parted with their better players (Reuben Reid and Grant Holt respectively). A better bet might be Bournemouth who ended so strongly last year, didn't seem to sell many players in the summer, although they don't look to have had a good pre-season.

One team who will always be expected to do well are Bradford, not least because of the huge gates they get and their stadium and general setup. It can surely only be a matter of time before City do go up and at 11/1 they are probably the best value of the leading group.

Of the relegated clubs Northampton are the most fancied to bounce back up, and Crewe also have been tipped to do well. Both clubs have had some good pre-season results and could be a force in the division next season.

Of the remaining teams the ones who look to have had the best pre-seasons are Burton, Rochdale, Cheltenham, and Grimsby. Grimsby in my view have such a tough start that they are not worth backing until several games have elapsed. On the other hand if they do start well you will have grabbed yourself a bargain.

Finally two dark horses are Torquay and Port Vale. Torquay have had a good squad since their relegation and the promoted sides normally carry on their good form in at least their first season.

Port Vale on the other hand have had financial problems, but are a big club and at 33/1 are worthy of an each way bet.

At the other end of the table Morecambe look the best bet to get relegated. They get some of the worst gates in League Two so are therefore always likely to be down there. More importantly their pre-season results look poor, so they could get off to a bad start from which they never recover. Although they had a good season last year how often do you see a smaller club do badly the next year? At 11/1 with 888.com they are well worth a few quid.

To win the League

Northampton 13.00
Chesterfield 13.00
Bury 13.00
Crewe 17.00
Bournemouth 15.00
Rochdale 17.00
Cheltenham 26.00
Torquay 26.00
Lincoln City 29.00
Grimsby 29.00
Dag & Red 29.00
Darlington 34.00
Hereford 34.00
Port Vale 34.00
Morecambe 34.00
Aldershot 41.00
Burton Albion 41.00
Barnet 51.00
Macclesfield 81.00
Accrington Stanley 101.00

Prices from Bet365

To be Relegated

Accrington Stanley 3.25
Macclesfield 4.33
Burton Albion 5.50
Barnet 5.50
Darlington 6.00
Aldershot 6.50
Dag & Red 9.00
Morecambe 9.00
Hereford 9.00
Port Vale 9.00
Grimsby 10.00
Torquay 13.00
Cheltenham 13.00
Lincoln City 15.00
Crewe 17.00
Rochdale 17.00
Bournemouth 17.00
Bury 21.00
Chesterfield 23.00
Northampton 26.00
Bradford 29.00
Shrewsbury 23.00
Rotherham 34.00
Notts County 41.00

Prices from Bet365

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW). (16/1, 888.com)
• 2. Morecambe to be relegated(£10) (11/1, 888.com)

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