Beat the Bookies: Week 19

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 18/12/2007

LAST week's win for Brentford meant that Beat the Bookies is back in profit again for the season, but only just and with four bets still outstanding. With a busy Xmas period ahead of us there is plenty of money to be made or lost.

Coincidentally this weekend sees nearly every match in League Two as a home banker, not least being Stockport who welcome Grimsby to Edgeley Park. Stockport are in a midtable position at the moment, but have a good record against Grimsby in recent seasons. Anyone looking for evidence of a Town win would look at County's recent home form, though which is poor: the Hatters had lost to Lincoln, Hereford and Peterborough in consecutive league games before the 6-0 spanking of Wycombe in their last match in front of their own fans broke the spell. Town, who have scraped past two poor sides in their last two games, are 3/1 to win the game against a much stronger outfit, which sounds about right. 12/5 for a draw is probably the best value of the three outcomes, with 4/5 for a home win the other option.

With so many unfancied away teams from the lower reaches of the table this week the challenge is to find one of whom who can cause an upset against a higher ranking home side. Longest odds of all is Brentford who head north to leaders MK Dons. Brentford, minus the departed Terry Butcher managed a win last week away from home at Wrexham, but can they do the impossible and win at the leaders? Bet365.com are offering a very tempting 8/1 on a win for the Bees, against an MK Dons side who do occasionally slip up at home. 8/1 is worth a punt on any team in this division beating any other in our view, and Brentford looked a reasonable side short of confidence against Town in Butcher's final game in charge.

In brief the other matches worthy of consideration are Chesterfield v Mansfield (local derby, 9/2, Mansfield wretched form), Accrington Stanley v Shrewsbury (2/1, Shrewsbury terrible away form), Chester v Bury (10/3, both teams lacklustre of late), Hereford v Morecambe (4/1, Morecambe always lose when we back them, Hereford flying), Peterborough v Bradford (Posh strong at home, City struggling again), Rochdale v Barnet (3/1, Barnet wretched form against a solid Dale side), Rotherham v Wrexham (Wrexham only 1 win in 10), Wycombe v Macclesfield (good win for Wycombe last week after recent blip).

Of all the above games the pick of the bunch for an upset is Chester v Bury as it is the only game (with the possible exception of ours - oh and Morecambe but we're sick of backing them to win and losing) where the away team has any decent sort of form.

Recommended Bets

• 1. Bury to beat Chester (10/3, bet365).
• 2. Brentford to beat MK Dons (8/1, bet365).

Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

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