Beat the Bookies: Week 2

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 14/08/2009

ALTHOUGH last weekend was a pretty miserable time on the football and cricket front, the one minute crumb of consolation was that Beat the Bookies made an opening profit to its campaign thanks to Bournemouth's impressive win over Bury.

Once again we will be concentrating on only those games involving teams that both were in the division last season, until the dust settles and it is possible to figure a pattern to the first few games.

Grimsby v Crewe. This is difficult to predict as Crewe have got off to a bad start, and Grimsby have stuttered as well. Town's injury problems and a new 'keeper in their side probably swing the pendulum in Crewe's favour. However with the bookies only offering 2/1 for an away win it's not a price that would instantly win your support. Our instinct on this game is probably to follow the old adage: if in doubt, bet nowt. Selection: Crewe

Rochdale v Aldershot. Aldershot looked very impressive in their opening game against Darlo. Although the Hampshire club had a poor away record last season, they'll have targeted this as an area to improve on this season and could spring a surprise at Rochdale, who have yet to win this campaign. Go for the Shots at 10/3. Selection: Aldershot

Accrington Stanley v Lincoln. This looks like a low scoring game, with goals in short supply in both team's games this season. The bookies give all three outcomes a similar price, and it does look close, but the fact that City have won this game for the last two years means we favour the Imps to make it three wins on the trot at the Crown Ground. 17/10. Selection: Lincoln

Bournemouth v Rotherham. The battle between last season's negative teams ended in a draw last season, and this year both are amongst the favourites to do well now they are playing without a handicap. The Cherries looked superb in their opening win against Bury, which we tipped last week, whereas Rotherham scraped home with a last gasp goal against Accrington. A home win looks worth a punt at 7/5. Selection: Bournemouth

Macclesfield v Notts County. We said last week that it's worth opposing Notts County in the first few games, and here you've got little to lose at such long odds. The bookies make County odds on to win at a ground which has claimed many scalps. The Silkmen are worth backing to claim another at 3/1.. Selection: Macclesfield

Barnet v Shrewsbury. The Shrews' first two games gave the impression that they mean business this season. Barnet haven't started too badly either, the bookies may be put off an away win because of Shrewsbury's poor record on the road last season. What happened last year should be largely irrelevant this time around. Shrews are worth a punt at 6/4.. Selection: Shrewsbury

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals. . (8/11, Bet365)
• 2. Bournemouth to beat Rotherham. (7/5, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

• Sell Barnet mini-performance (23 at extrabet.com)

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 18/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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