Beat the Bookies: Week 7

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 17/09/2009

BURTON'S late equaliser at Bradford meant that it was a losing week for Beat the Bookies. However Grimsby won so what do mere details like money matter?!

Torquay v Grimsby. Grimsby again are up against another out of form side. This time though Town will have the confidence that a win gave them in their last match, and training must have been a bit more fun this week with the knowledge that three points have been taken. That and the fact that players are starting to get close to coming back, and it's hard not to see signs of recovery. More importantly though are the opposition. Town got off to a poor start against difficult opposition and - starting last week - have hit a slightly easier set of matches - on paper. It's unlikely that the bookies have factored into their prices players coming back from injury, nor the quality of the teams Grimsby have played in the early games, so all in all the away win is the best bet. Town can be backed at 14/5. Selection: Grimsby

Chesterfield v Macclesfield. Chesterfield have not won for four league games. OK Macclesfield's form is not great either, but there doesn't look to be much to choose between these two on recent form, other than home advantage and the fact that Chesterfield are a bigger club. An away win is worth a punt at 4/1 Selection: Macclesfield

Barnet v Bradford. Both clubs have been doing well and Barnet have been the real surprise package of the season. Barnet only got a draw last week though at Macclesfield and Bradford were unlucky to not beat Burton. All in all an away win would seem more likely than a home win and you can back the Bantams at 9/4 with Sky Bet. Selection: Bradford

Port Vale v Bury. Bury's recent form is terrible. They have lost four games on the spin without scoring a goal, and this weekend they head to Port Vale who are showing signs of improving after a poor start. This should be an easy win for the Vale - who of course pulverised Grimsby 4-0 two weeks ago - who you can back at 6/5. Selection: Port Vale

Man Utd v Man City. It seems bizarre that a team with a 100% record can be 5/1 to win a game. If you were to look at the two squads and sets of results this season not knowing which team was which would you honestly give a price of 5/1 for City. Man Utd hardly ever lose at home but City showed last week that they have what it takes to beat the so-called "Big Four". Utd look less strong than they have been in recent years, although City look like having key players injured and suspended. Selection: Man City

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Man City to beat Man Utd. . (5/1, Bet365)
• 2. Port Vale to beat Bury. . (6/5, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

• Buy Grimsby mini-performance (21 at extrabet.com)

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 33/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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