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| The lot on Town! |
Beat the Bookies: Week 19
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 23/12/2009 (Last updated: 14/03/2010)
MORECAMBE fortunately failed to beat Grimsby last Friday, which meant our only tip which survived the weather lost - but it was money well spent!
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Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 19 |
Notts County v Grimsby. Can you seriously tip anything but a draw in a match involving Grimsby? Well, yes, actually when you can get odds of 13/2 with Sky Bet on a Town win. The evidence of the recent weeks are that Grimsby are improving. As for Notts County, well events there recently must have been a body blow and their last result at home to Accrington on top of some other iffy results can only suggest that their form may be starting to dip too. Selection: Grimsby Rotherham v Darlington. Darlo have been dire recently and Rotherham are in terrific form. But it's Boxing Day! The odds on anything but a home win are almost unprecedented in League Two. You can get 11/1 with Sky Bet on a Darlo win and a draw is as long as 9/2. Believe it or not the form of the two teams going into a game make very little difference historically to the chances of a draw, so you have to question the odds makers on this one. Selection: Draw Northampton v Dag & Red. Dagenham have stuttered recently and are not picking up many wins at all now, especially away from home. Northampton are hardly firing on all cylinders but recent form hardly suggests that Dagenham should start out favourites to win this at Sixfields. Take a home win at 7/4 Selection: Northampton Shrewsbury v Macclesfield. Shrewsbury have been abysmal recently and Grimsby really should have beaten them when they played recently. Listening to the commentary in their 4-0 drubbing by Rochdale the other day they seem to be at a real low. Macclesfield at 4/1 with Sky Bet have not been doing especially well either but they've won recently at Cheltenham and Darlo, so are capable of wins on their travels. Selection: Macclesfield
This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
- 1. Grimsby to beat Notts County. . (13/2, Sky Bet)
- 2. Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury. . (4/1, Sky Bet)
Recommended Spread Bet
- No bet this week
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 80/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12 | Accrington to beat Barnet | Evens | £0.00 |
| 16/12 | Morecambe to beat Grimsby | Evens | -£10.00 |
| 10/12 | Accrington to beat Notts County | 7/1 | +£70.00 |
| 10/12 | Darlington to beat Torquay | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/12 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 5/2 | -£10.00 |
| 03/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Bournemouth | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 20/11 | Grimsby to beat Lincoln | 11/4 | -£20.00 |
| 13/11 | Grimsby to beat Northampton | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 13/11 | Torquay to beat Shrewsbury | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 05/11 | Darlington to beat Barnet | 11/2 | -£10.00 |
| 05/11 | Bradford to beat Notts County | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Accrington Stanley to beat Rochdale | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 22/10 | Darlington to beat Barnet | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Grimsby to beat Rochdale | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Barnet to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Torquay to beat Notts Co | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 02/10 | Accrington Stanley to beat Chesterfield | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 02/10 | Shrewsbury to beat Morecambe | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 25/09 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Man City to beat Man Utd | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 6/5 | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Bradford to beat Burton | Evens | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Lincoln to beat Bournemouth | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 03/09 | Chesterfield to beat Rotherham | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Bury to beat Rochdale | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Lincoln to beat Dagenham | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 20/08 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 7/5 | +£45.00 |
| 20/08 | Dagenham to beat Notts County | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/08 | Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 14/08 | Bournemouth to beat Rotherham | 7/5 | +£14.00 |
| 05/08 | Bradford to beat Notts County | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/08 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 12/5 | +£24.00 |
| 01/08 | Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW) | 16/1 | Open |
| 01/08 | Morecambe to be relegated | 11/1 | Open |
| Total | -£32.73 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12 | Macclesfield v Hereford: Sell Macclesfield mini-performance | 24/td> | S | 55 | -£31.00 |
| 22/10 | Chesterfield v Burton Albion: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 30/td> | S | 75 | -£45.00 |
| 16/10 | Darlington v Shrewsbury: Sell Shrewsbury mini-performance | 28 | S | 10 | +£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Notts County v Port Vale: Buy Port Vale mini-performance | 15 | B | 10 | -£5.00 |
| 17/09 | Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance | 21 | B | 45 | +£24.00 |
| 27/08 | Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 33 | S | 20 | +£13.00 |
| 20/08 | Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance | 28 | S | 30 | -£2.00 |
| 14/08 | Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance | 23 | S | 30 | -£7.00 |
| Total | -£25.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 13/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 11/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 14/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 18/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£260.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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