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Beat the Bookies: Week 24
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 05/02/2010
ADAM Proudlock's penalty miss not only cost the Mariners two precious points, it also cost Beat the Bookies a near certain fifty quid. With yet another postponement at Lincoln it means that the other bet had no chance of making up the deficit.
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Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 19 |
Chesterfield v Lincoln. Lincoln have had some decent results recently and when they have lost it has been narrowly. Chesterfield's biggest problem is scoring; their games have been very low scoring of late. This looks like a low scoring game, and it could be close. 11/2 for an away win looks very generous. Selection: Lincoln
Grimsby v Notts County. Grimsby surely can't win this, or can they? County are on fire, doing well in the league and FA Cup, and their off the field problems don't seem to be having too much effect so far. So why are we tipping Grimsby to win? Because they are 4/1, a ridiculous price for a home team in this division. Town almost won away at Aldershot this week and have Lancashire in the squad now as well. The home win has to be the value bet in this game. Selection: Grimsby
Dag & Red v Northampton. Northampton have won their last three away games; Dagenham have lost 4 out of 6 home games, many of them heavily. Dagenham at the moment seem a team on the down, the Cobblers a team on the up. 9/4 looks a very good price for an away win. Selection: Northampton
Barnet v Aldershot. Barnet cannot win for love or money at the moment and it's worth backing whoever they are playing. Aldershot looked a solid team on their second half performance last weekend and 6/4 is a good price against a team bottom of the form table. Selection: Aldershot
This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- No bet this week
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 50/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01 | Grimsby to beat Aldershot | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 29/01 | Lincoln to beat Dagenham | 13/2 | £0.00 |
| 23/01 | Morecambe to beat Barnet | Evens | +£10.00 |
| 23/01 | Grimsby to beat Rotherham | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/01 | Crewe to beat Dagenham | ? | -£10.00 |
| 16/01 | Torquay to beat Chesterfield | ? | -£10.00 |
| 24/12 | Grimsby to beat Notts County | 13/2 | £0.00 |
| 24/12 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Accrington to beat Barnet | Evens | £0.00 |
| 16/12 | Morecambe to beat Grimsby | Evens | -£10.00 |
| 10/12 | Accrington to beat Notts County | 7/1 | +£70.00 |
| 10/12 | Darlington to beat Torquay | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/12 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 5/2 | -£10.00 |
| 03/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Bournemouth | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 20/11 | Grimsby to beat Lincoln | 11/4 | -£20.00 |
| 13/11 | Grimsby to beat Northampton | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 13/11 | Torquay to beat Shrewsbury | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 05/11 | Darlington to beat Barnet | 11/2 | -£10.00 |
| 05/11 | Bradford to beat Notts County | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Accrington Stanley to beat Rochdale | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 22/10 | Darlington to beat Barnet | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Grimsby to beat Rochdale | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Barnet to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Torquay to beat Notts Co | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 02/10 | Accrington Stanley to beat Chesterfield | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 02/10 | Shrewsbury to beat Morecambe | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 25/09 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Man City to beat Man Utd | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 6/5 | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Bradford to beat Burton | Evens | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Lincoln to beat Bournemouth | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 03/09 | Chesterfield to beat Rotherham | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Bury to beat Rochdale | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Lincoln to beat Dagenham | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 20/08 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 7/5 | +£45.00 |
| 20/08 | Dagenham to beat Notts County | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/08 | Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 14/08 | Bournemouth to beat Rotherham | 7/5 | +£14.00 |
| 05/08 | Bradford to beat Notts County | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/08 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 12/5 | +£24.00 |
| 01/08 | Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW) | 16/1 | Open |
| 01/08 | Morecambe to be relegated | 11/1 | Open |
| Total | -£72.73 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12 | Macclesfield v Hereford: Sell Macclesfield mini-performance | 24/td> | S | 55 | -£31.00 |
| 22/10 | Chesterfield v Burton Albion: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 30/td> | S | 75 | -£45.00 |
| 16/10 | Darlington v Shrewsbury: Sell Shrewsbury mini-performance | 28 | S | 10 | +£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Notts County v Port Vale: Buy Port Vale mini-performance | 15 | B | 10 | -£5.00 |
| 17/09 | Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance | 21 | B | 45 | +£24.00 |
| 27/08 | Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 33 | S | 20 | +£13.00 |
| 20/08 | Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance | 28 | S | 30 | -£2.00 |
| 14/08 | Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance | 23 | S | 30 | -£7.00 |
| Total | -£25.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 02/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 13/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 11/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 08/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 14/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 18/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£310.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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