Beat the Bookies: Week 12

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 01/11/2007

BURY and Wrexham failed to win their games last week, so Beat the Bookies' winning streak is over. Still, another weekend, another set of games, and another chance to win. Here we go.

Grimsby travel to Rotherham rank outsiders of any team in League Two to pick up points this weekend. And its hard to make a case on paper for Town to come away with Millmoor with a draw, let alone a win. One crumb of comfort is that we have been a bit of a bogey team for the Millers in recent years, and we've already beat them (well drawn really - we won on pens) once this season in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy. If you are really brave you can back Town at 4/1 to win with bet365 but Rotherham I am afraid are definitely the form horse and should canter home.

Elsewhere in League Two most of the other games this weekend are very difficult to call and the bookies too have made them all close affairs. Bury v Barnet sees two form teams face one another, as does Hereford v Darlington. The opposite is the case when two struggling teams face one another in the form of last week's opponents Bradford who face Brentford at home. City get huge crowds at home and will be buoyed by the last minute equaliser against us this week. That and Brentford's poor run of late means Bradford at 5/4 should be good enough to get a valuable three points and lift themselves up the table.

Interestingly Town are now best prices 33/1 to get promoted (Stan James) and 5/1 to get relegated (Corals). Of the two relegation is obviously the better price, not least because promotion would have to be via the play-offs and even there the odds of actually going up are only 3/1. Although we look a million miles away from challenging for a promotion place, last season's bizarre swings show that the team are capable of putting both good and bad runs together and there is still plenty of the season to go, as well as the possibility of a managerial change at some point. I'd be tempted to stick a few quid on promotion if Town reach 40/1 or more.

Recommended Bets

• 1. Bradford to beat Brentford (5/4, bet365).

Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

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