Beat the Bookies: Week 25

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 30/01/2009

LAST week's foray into the Premiership's Big Four and the FA Cup had only limited success. However a tidy win in for Bournemouth over Wycombe in League Two ensured a substantial winning payout on the spread betting which offset the fixed odds tips.

Bradford v Grimsby It's been a season of two halves for Grimsby so far, delimited conveniently and poetically by the change of year at the campaign's half way point. Town are undefeated in the current calendar year, and are literally a different team to that which started the first few games of the season from which 'keeper Phil Barnes is the only survivor. New signings frequently require a significant bedding in period at Blundell Park, but Mike Newell's latest acquisitions have flourished, even - dare we say it at this early stage - promising bountiful harvests in years to come. Bradford in contrast have spluttered all season, scoring plenty of goals but conceding often and ending up with far too many draws to ensure an automatic promotion place. At the moment they have fallen below the play-off zone, and their recent form does not justify their 8/11 price. Instead the value has to be for the Mariners to repeat their three points at Adams Park - available at 4/1. Selection: Grimsby

Exeter v Barnet. A similar fixture is taking place at St James's Park, Exeter, where promotion contenders Exeter take on relegation fodder Barnet. Exeter like Bradford looked like automatic promotion candidates in the early season, but have tailed away of late. They, like the Bantams, are traditionally strong at home, and face an away side under a new manager whose recent results have belied their lowly placement in League Two. Our recommendation can only be the same, with the Bees priced 4/1 with Sky Bet. Selection: Barnet

Wycombe v Accrington. Wycombe have lost their last two games to teams near the bottom (Grimsby and Bournemouth - both recommendations in this column!), and their fans will no doubt be feeling the jitters after the implosions which have taken place around this stage in the season in recent League Two campaigns. New Year's Day really is a harbinger of doom for the Chairboys! Accrington have been consolidating their mid-table status of late and are probably more dangerous for the simple fact they have virtually nothing to play for and have no reason not to go for a win. Stanley are available at an even longer price than the other two and can be picked up for 5/1. Selection: Accrington

Luton v Bury. It's been hard to get used to, but there's no doubt that this season Bury are promotion candidates away from their normal position in the bottom six. Luton need to win the vast majority of their remaining games to have any chance of avoiding the drop and have scored plenty of goals of late, just thrown away a few points when in a winning position. They can't afford to make any more mistakes and will probably be that bit more desperate to win that Bury. The Hatters can be backed to win at 6/4. Selection: Luton

Rotherham v Macclesfield. Rotherham's League Season is over. They are plenty good enough to pick up the points they need to avoid the drop, and they have no chance of reaching the play-offs with their 17 point deduction. Their entire campaign rests on Tuesday night when they need to overcome a 2-0 deficit at home to Scunthorpe to reach Wembley. Macclesfield with their big money owners are starting to become a more signficant force in League Two than in years gone by and the Silkmen should be able to repeat Town's success with the Millers's thoughts largely being on Tuesday night. Macclesfield can be backed to win at 7/2 with Sky Bet. Selection: Macclesfield

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Grimsby to beat Bradford . (4/1 Bet365),
• 2. Macclesfield to beat Rotherham. (7/2 Sky Bet),

Recommended Spread Bet

• Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance (32) at www.igsport.com

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 50/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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