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Beat the Bookies: Week 36
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 16/04/2009
LONG, long ago last Saturday Grimsby lost to Accrington, and everyone else also lost - including Beat the Bookies! Both fixed odds bets lost and the week's spread bet make a very small loss - but still technically a loss.
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Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 36 |
Grimsby v Port Vale. Grimsby can be backed at 8/11 in this vital match at Blundell Park - not tremendously generous given Town's poor home record this season. However Vale's season has been over for some time and their recent results have been poor. One feature of their recent games is very few goals, and both defences have been fairly mean of late. A better value bet therefore might be to go for a low scoring game. Bet365 are offering 17/20 for under 2.5 goals (i.e. 0,1 or 2). Selection: Under 2.5 goals
Chester v Bournemouth. The match that everyone is interested in, but nobody is sure who they want to win is very hard to call. Chester have picked up of late, but Bournemouth have slipped up recently. To be fair the Cherries have generally played in form teams, whereas Chester have generally won against out of form teams. Now they meet Bournemouth are probably better than their recent form, and Chester worse than their recent form. Bournemouth can be backed at 7/5. Selection: Bournemouth
Rochdale v Darlington. Darlo would normally be midtable cannon fodder at this time of year. But with all their financial problems and the fact that the game is on TV means the Quakers and their fans will be 100% committed to condemn Dale to another play-off season, and Darlo of course were beaten in the play-offs last year by Dale so they will be looking for revenge. At 11/2 Darlington look a great price against a Dale side who are very wobbly. Selection: Darlington
Brentford v Accrington Stanley. No team should be 8/1 to win a League Two game! Accrington won at Blundell Park this week and at that price a few of their own players could have having a grand or two on them - or maybe a fiver. Alternatively at 2.05 in the Asian Handicap with a 1.0 goal start, Stanley would have to lose by 2 goals for you to lose your money. Even better do both bets and you won't lose anything if it is a draw, and only half your total stake if Accrington lose by 1 goal. Selection: Accrington
Morecambe v Notts County . We say it every week but Morecambe are nearly always good value. This week they are 5/6 to beat an out of form County side. Selection: Morecambe
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
- 1. Darlington to beat Rochdale. (11/2, Bet365)
- 2. Accrington to beat Brentford (£5). (8/1, Bet365)
- 3. Accrington (+1) to beat Brentford (£5). (2.05 Asian Handicap, Bet365)
Recommended Spread Bet
- Prices not available.
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 12/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04 | Darlington to beat Chesterfield | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 09/04 | Luton to beat Lincoln | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 13/8 | +£16.25 |
| 31/03 | Bradford to beat Chester | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 16/5 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Chester to beat Bury | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Luton to beat Macclesfield | 16/5 | +£8.00 |
| 12/03 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 16/5 | +£32.00 |
| 12/03 | Luton to beat Aldershot | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 13/5 | +£26.00 |
| 05/03 | Barnet to beat Chester | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 26/02 | Bournemouth to beat Gillingham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Barnet to beat Chesterfield | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Barnet to beat Bradford | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 20/02 | Morecambe to beat Aldershot | 11/4 | +£27.50 |
| 13/02 | Barnet to beat Notts County | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Exeter to beat Aldershot | 10/11 | +£9.09 |
| 05/02 | Dagenham to beat Bury | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to beat Bradford | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Macclesfield to beat Rotherham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) | 4/5 | £0.00 |
| 21/01 | Tottenham to beat Man Utd | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Lincoln to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Luton to beat Darlington | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/01 | Exeter to beat Notts County | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Accrington to beat Rochdale | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Bournemouth to beat Darlington | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Luton to beat Chesterfield | 14/5 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Port Vale to beat Rotherham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Bournemouth to beat Brentford | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Grimsby to beat Aldershot | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Lincoln to beat Notts County | 7/4 | +£17.50 |
| 11/12 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 11/12 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bournemouth to beat Chester | Evens | +£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 10/11 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Aldershot beat Millwall | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Alferton beat Scunthorpe | 17/2 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Notts Co to beat Dagenham | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Gillingham to beat Bury | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 9/2 | +£45.00 |
| 11/11 | Gillingham to beat Rotherham | 5/4 | +£12.50 |
| 06/11 | Northampton to beat Leeds | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to beat Morecambe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Bradford to beat MK Dons | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 31/10 | Dagenham to beat Accrington | 5/6 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Luton to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Port Vale to beat Aldershot | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Rotherham to beat Macclesfield | 8/5 | +£16.00 |
| 22/10 | Luton to beat Bury | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 14/10 | Brentford to beat Aldershot | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Port Vale to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to beat Wycombe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Barnet to beat Dagenham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Dagenham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | +£50.00 |
| 30/09 | Shrewsbury beat Darlington | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Brentford to beat Macclesfield | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 24/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Rotherham to beat Dagenham | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Dag & Red to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
| 28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dag & Red | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
| 15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£3.23 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04 | Rochdale v Port Vale: Sell Rochdale Mini Performance | 34 | S | 35 | -£1.00 |
| 03/04 | Exeter v Dagenham: Sell Dagenham Mini Performance | 20 | 10 | S | +£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Rochdale v Exeter - sell Rochdale Mini Performance | 30 | 30 | S | +£0.00 |
| 20/03 | Shrewsbury v Morecambe - sell Shrewsbury Mini Performance | 31 | 10 | S | +£21.00 |
| 26/02 | Rochdale v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 16 | 0 | S | -£16.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance | 27 | 45 | B | +£18.00 |
| 30/01 | Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance | 32 | 45 | S | -£13.00 |
| 21/01 | Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | +£34.00 |
| 15/01 | Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 14 | 35 | S | +£21.00 |
| 04/12 | Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance | 21 | 10 | B | -£6.00 |
| 04/12 | Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | -£34.00 |
| 19/11 | Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance | 25 | 45 | S | +£20.00 |
| 31/10 | Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance | 26 | 0 | S | -£26.00 |
| 22/10 | Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance | 19 | 10 | S | +£9.00 |
| 14/10 | Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance | 14 | 65 | S | -£51.00 |
| 09/10 | Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 19 | 20 | S | -£1.00 |
| 24/09 | Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 21 | 10 | S | +£11.00 |
| 17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
| 04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
| 28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
| 19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
| 15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
| 06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
| Total | +£18.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 12/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£360.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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Related Stories
- Beat the Bookies: Week 35
- 2008-2009 Beat the Bookies
- 2008-2009 League Two Remaining Fixtures
- More Stories
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