Beat the Bookies: Week 8

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 25/09/2009

GRIMSBY'S win and two goals last weekend ensured a spread betting win for Beat the Bookies. Sadly Man City and Port Vale didn't oblige in the Fixed Odds markets.

Grimsby v Darlington. Grimsby, with players coming back, against the division's bottom side, and with a couple of wins under their belts, are clear favourites to win. Town can be backed at 10/11. However, it's Darlo - even in our good years we seem to lose to them. Moreover you get the feeling that Town's confidence is still a little shaky after such a poor start - we're yet to get anything out of a game where we concede the first goal. Therefore the value bet in the 1X2 market has to be an away win at 3/1. Another good bet has to be a low-scoring game - Grimsby's formation is rather defensives, and Darlington are unlikely to set themselves out with goals their chief objective. You can bet under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Selection: Low Scoring Game

Notts County v Port Vale. You'd have made a healthy profit in you'd backed Notts County to lose every game so far. Admittedly they've been a lot stronger at home than they have on their travels, but this week has not been a good one for them with the Sol Campbell fiasco having been all over the national media. County could react either way, but an away win is worth a punt at 11/2 Selection: Port Vale

Bury v Lincoln. Bury's recent form was terrible, until we tipped them to lose last week at Port Vale and they won. However, we'll regard that as a blip and they only managed one goal to nil! Lincoln are going through a transitional phase and sooner or later they'll start stringing a few decent results together. They're definitely worth considering at 3/1. Selection: Lincoln

Dagenham v Morecambe. Dagenham have been superb this season and Morecambe had a terrible start to the campaign. However recent displays from the Christie Park side have hinted at better things to come, not least a win last week against moneybags Notts County. Sammy McIlroy is a wily old campaigner and he could well put up a side capable of springing a surprise for the second consecutive weekend. Take your chances at 5/1 on Morecambe to win the game. Selection: Morecambe

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals. . (4/5, Bet365)
• 2. Morecambe to beat Dagenham. . (5/1, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

• Buy Port Vale mini-performance (15 at extrabet.com)

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 14/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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