Cheers Town! |
Beat the Bookies: Week 8
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 25/09/2009
GRIMSBY'S win and two goals last weekend ensured a spread betting win for Beat the Bookies. Sadly Man City and Port Vale didn't oblige in the Fixed Odds markets.
Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 8 |
Grimsby v Darlington. Grimsby, with players coming back, against the division's bottom side, and with a couple of wins under their belts, are clear favourites to win. Town can be backed at 10/11. However, it's Darlo - even in our good years we seem to lose to them. Moreover you get the feeling that Town's confidence is still a little shaky after such a poor start - we're yet to get anything out of a game where we concede the first goal. Therefore the value bet in the 1X2 market has to be an away win at 3/1. Another good bet has to be a low-scoring game - Grimsby's formation is rather defensives, and Darlington are unlikely to set themselves out with goals their chief objective. You can bet under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Selection: Low Scoring Game
Notts County v Port Vale. You'd have made a healthy profit in you'd backed Notts County to lose every game so far. Admittedly they've been a lot stronger at home than they have on their travels, but this week has not been a good one for them with the Sol Campbell fiasco having been all over the national media. County could react either way, but an away win is worth a punt at 11/2 Selection: Port Vale
Bury v Lincoln. Bury's recent form was terrible, until we tipped them to lose last week at Port Vale and they won. However, we'll regard that as a blip and they only managed one goal to nil! Lincoln are going through a transitional phase and sooner or later they'll start stringing a few decent results together. They're definitely worth considering at 3/1. Selection: Lincoln
Dagenham v Morecambe. Dagenham have been superb this season and Morecambe had a terrible start to the campaign. However recent displays from the Christie Park side have hinted at better things to come, not least a win last week against moneybags Notts County. Sammy McIlroy is a wily old campaigner and he could well put up a side capable of springing a surprise for the second consecutive weekend. Take your chances at 5/1 on Morecambe to win the game. Selection: Morecambe
This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
- 1. Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals. . (4/5, Bet365)
- 2. Morecambe to beat Dagenham. . (5/1, Bet365)
Recommended Spread Bet
- Buy Port Vale mini-performance (15 at extrabet.com)
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 14/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
17/09 | Man City to beat Man Utd | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
17/09 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 6/5 | -£10.00 |
10/09 | Bradford to beat Burton | Evens | -£10.00 |
10/09 | Lincoln to beat Bournemouth | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
03/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
03/09 | Chesterfield to beat Rotherham | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
27/08 | Bury to beat Rochdale | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
27/08 | Lincoln to beat Dagenham | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
20/08 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 7/5 | +£45.00 |
20/08 | Dagenham to beat Notts County | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
14/08 | Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
14/08 | Bournemouth to beat Rotherham | 7/5 | +£14.00 |
05/08 | Bradford to beat Notts County | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
05/08 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 12/5 | +£24.00 |
01/08 | Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW) | 16/1 | Open |
01/08 | Morecambe to be relegated | 11/1 | Open |
Total | +£25.27 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
17/09 | Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance | 21 | B | 45 | +£24.00 |
27/08 | Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance | 33 | S | 20 | +£13.00 |
20/08 | Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance | 28 | S | 30 | -£2.00 |
14/08 | Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance | 23 | S | 30 | -£7.00 |
Total | +£28.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
10/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
03/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
27/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
20/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
18/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
11/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | ??/1 | -£10.00 |
05/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
Total | -£80.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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